Reading the Tea Leaves: Part One
Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue Retention Projections for Giving Below $1000
Part one of a two-part collaboration between CDP and Greater Public
Co-written by Deb Ashmore and Daren Winckel
The Executive Summary
After an unprecedented surge in donors and revenue in 2025 across public media, including new donor counts that DOUBLED, the central question every leader in public media is asking is “How much of that growth can I expect to hold onto in FY27?”
It’s important to recognize that membership revenue is primarily driven by two core dynamics: retention of existing ones and acquisition of new ones. This analysis focuses on one critical side of that equation — revenue retention for gifts below $1,000 — while also providing directional context on new donor trends for FY27. Part two, from our friends at Greater Public, will focus on giving of $1000+ and will follow in a few days.
This work draws on data from the National Reference File (NRF), the largest repository of transactional data in public media, representing 75% of all public media donors and $1.4 billion in annual membership revenue.
Our analysis indicates that revenue retention will remain strong but will decline from 2025 highs. Based on historical benchmarks and current donor mix, for giving below $1,0000, we project FY27 revenue retention rates of approximately:
91% for Radio
87% for Joint Licensees
82% for Television
Encouragingly, external research signals continued support from the massive wave of 2025’s new and rejoin donors: A recent comprehensive donor survey by City Square Associates found that 62% of respondents plan to continue their support in the coming year.
And while our analysis is focused on retention, new donor acquisition will ultimately determine whether PMOs simply hold the majority of the 2025 gains or exceed them. The good news is that among our 50+ MSB partner organizations, year-over-year new donor growth continues to remain strong in 2026 (+38% through May 1).
That said, we expect year-over-year growth rates to decline by the start of FY27 (for July 1 budget years), with absolute new donor counts returning closer to pre-2025 station-level trendlines by late 2026.
The Recommendations
Given these dynamics, CDP strongly recommends that local stations maintain their acquisition investment levels and expand investment in their capacity for prospect cultivation and donor stewardship for the coming year.
We also recommend that stations take a conservative approach to FY27 budgeting, planning for a range of approximately a 2% decline to 2% growth in membership revenue from donors under $1,000.
It is important to note that even flat performance in FY27 would represent a significant success, indicating that PMOs have retained the extraordinary gains achieved in 2025. Organizations with high retention and stronger-than-average new donor acquisition strategies may reasonably plan for results above this range, while others may need to adjust downward based on their specific file composition and retention metrics.
The Takeaway
2025 was a steep change in growth that created real opportunity for local public media organizations (PMOs) to forge their path to a secure future through strategic investments in, and innovative approaches to, their fundraising programs. How PMOs approach this work in FY27 could very well separate those that survive from those that thrive.
The Details
While no amount of data can predict the future with 100% accuracy, especially in rapidly changing environments, with enough data and experience, we can point to repeating patterns for clues as to what may come.
As we emerge from the first quarter of 2026, having exhausted every synonym for “astonishing” to describe the growth in donors and revenue from 2025, we’ve begun the pivot from “what just happened?” to “what comes next?”
As a reminder, in this study we are focusing on giving below $1000.
For answers, we started with a look at the past. In recent memory, the only event that comes close to driving unusual universal growth in donors and revenue for public media was the COVID 19 quarantine which affected giving spanning 2020 and 2021. Reviewing the data for many organizations and the medians across various cohorts the greatest dip in revenue retention rates in the last seven years was in 2022, the year following strong increases in giving during the pandemic. We chose, then, that year as our guide for what we may see in FY2027 for retention of 2025 revenue.
The next area for consideration was the changing donor and revenue profiles or composition of the 2025 file. While both 2020/2021 and 2025 saw upswings in audience giving, 2025’s results were more stunning.
Taking just new donors into account, the median share of all donors that were new in 2021 for the 15 TV and Joint Licensees in Epiphany, CDP’s fundraising benchmarking service, was 16%. Following the pandemic, that dropped to a more typical 13% for the next three years. In 2025, these organizations had a median 21% share of new donors.
If we know (and we do) that the revenue retention rate for new one-time gift donors is typically lower than consecutive one-time gift donors. And that new sustainer revenue retention is higher than on-going sustainers (due to timing), then we can assume that having a greater share of new donors will impact overall revenue retention rates. Further, how it impacts those rates will depend greatly on the share of those new donors that were sustainers. In 2025, one of the many encouraging trends was that a greater share of the new donors were, in fact, sustainers.
In addition to the enormous surge of new (and reactivated) donors, there was an increase in donor value for loyal donors, driven often by multiple gifts. Returning to trends in years past, we know that donors that make multiple gifts are very likely to give in the following year. However, their revenue retention rate is typically below that of the overall loyal donor rate, because those second gifts don’t always come back. In 2025, both one-time gift donors and sustainers increased their share of donors making multiple gifts and those shares often exceeded results seen during the pandemic.
Taking all of this into account, we determined the following donor segments would be the most likely to drive revenue retention rates in fiscal year 2027, for donors giving less than $1000:
| Radio | TV | Joint | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consecutive Non-sustaining Donors, no multiple gifts | 86.3% | 93.4% | 92.5% |
| Consecutive Non-sustaining Donors, multiple gifts | 65.7% | 65.5% | 68.9% |
| Consecutive, Sustaining Donors, no multiple gifts | 99.4% | 91.4% |
96.2% |
| Consecutive, Sustaining Donors, multiple gifts | 82.1% | 75.0% | 80.6% |
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| Reactivated Non-sustaining Donors | 52.6% |
50.0% | 51.4% |
| Reactivated Sustaining Donors | 160.5% | 132.4% | 138.8% |
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| New Non-sustaining Donors | 48.8% | 37.9% | 36.7% |
| New Sustaining Donors | 170.1% | 136.8% | 143.8% |
Calculating the aggregate revenue for each donor segment for each public media organization type cohort, we applied the revenue retention rates in the chart above to find an overall projected revenue retention rate of:
Television: 82%
Joint: 87%
Radio: 91.4%
Individual organization results will vary depending on how the file composition differs from the aggregate. If you can, determine your total 2025 revenue for each donor segment and then apply the revenue retention projection for your organization type to those totals for a more accurate projection of retained revenue for your organization.
A reminder: In the coming days, we will be publishing recommendations for determining revenue retention rates for donors giving $1000 or more from our friends at Greater Public. Stay tuned.